A Model to Estimate the Passenger Rail Liberalisation: the Case of Serbia

Passenger rail transport market share has been drastically reduced in the last fifty years. The reforms were aimed at opening the market of railway services and development of competition in the railway sector in order to obtain the benefits of “market forces” and reduction of interventions in the railway sector. Determination of the level of reform often causes confusion and conflicting opinions. It involves the application of intuition and subjective assessments and is not used as a direct method of research, but as a summary of methods of reasoning on the current position. This suggests that it is appropriate to use the theory of fuzzy logic to evaluate the level of railway reform. Fuzzy model calculates the level of evaluation railway liberalization as a output variable where inputs are defined as: the dynamics of execution; number of reform steps taken; the implementation of transport policy; etc. The evaluation of the level of liberalization of the railway market and railway reforms is an important process which shows in which stage the countries are. Synchronization of reform level is very important for countries in the region to establish a stable transport market.